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11/22 The Enormity of Powell's Burden

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BLUF (bottom Line Up Front): Get confident... we're at the beginning of a long road

This is not a happy one. Don't get me wrong we are still winning in our strategy and have won the 2020 election.


The information coming out of various states and outlets is gushing now and much mythology is likely to grow along with it. Sydney Powell has a fight for the history books here and it was time to draw attention to a lesser known aspect of the pushback epitomized by Tucker Carlson's spat with Powell. We begin by examining the Republican relationship to its base but then go into a deeper look at what is really forcing the divide between the 'deplorables' and their kin in officialdom. Something much deeper in all of this is in play.


Toward a National Gut Check

In an interview on Newsmax TV yesterday evening, Sydney Powell laid out a number of points. Answering the obligatory questions about the overall status of the vote recount efforts nationally as well as the Tucker Carlson hissy-fit, Powell proceeded to do a deeper dive into her end of the investigation. This was the first time she explained that a number of Republicans are going to take a hit in getting to the bottom of the numbers game. While it has made the news via the campaign's legal team that California and New Mexico are on the table, she is now in company with Lin Wood having spent the last two days sending warnings to the leadership of the State of Georgia. The chaotic nature of the Georgia recount makes it difficult to discern the effectiveness with respect to the governor's attention.


This speaks to a deep issue, here written earlier, where Georgia would be a proving ground for how the MAGA movement handles the perfidy within their own ostensible house. At the same time the vote recount in PA would be a standard bearer for more ostensibly hostile voting territory. The fact is that both states are friendly to the deplorables and time and evidence will assuredly reveal this. But the question persists on the numbers in other states where governors are republicans. Are they being given a chance to clean up their own houses at this point? Florida comes immediately to mind.


Controlled opposition is a real phenomena. Having grown up in Republican politics in the State of Maryland, does not make me an expert but it entitles me to an opinion. I have seen it repeatedly to varying degrees in PA, VA, and CA (some of these states are better than others). Right now there are interests in the Republican party who are allowing indications to fester that they don't have the stomach for the long haul. These would be those such as Liz Chenney. The media would like to have the deplorables believe that she sees the need to put up evidence that she is smart enough to realize is not fully collated for court as yet, or accept the imperatives of life and go back to our tribal ways and believe the lie of marginal efficacy.


To buy that would assume that we have exhausted the full scope of options and time available to ensure the will of the people is reflected. But there this goes directly to the 'something deeper here' that statements attributed to Cheney, Senator Toomey and Senator Romney are reminiscent of the tea party history with Republican politics.


Antecedent of two Republican Parties:

When the Tea Party as a self organizing phenomena, catapulted members of congress to power, the Republican leadership on Capitol Hill dined out lavishly on the mandate. Unlike the contra example of AOC in contemporary times, tea party congressional types acquiesced in the placement of John Boenher and Paul Ryan into leadership. They had smarts and corporate Brooks Brothers charm.


Over time, the swamp lulled the insurgent rascals into a place where they could be taken for granted. These restive forerunners of the deplorables created some headaches but over time were to have placation at veteran's barbeques, rubber chicken appreciation dinners and one or two sound bites in a congressional district debate. Once the steam had been vented and the "don't tread on me" shirts were back in the dresser for the work flannel to get on with the trench work of the republic. problem solved, the seers of social and budgetary suicide were confident the movement was down for a nappy time that would permit the public policy adults to reign.


The patient good nature of the Tea Party movement was fitfully alive in 2012. The happy warfare had given way to practical necessity as they weirily welcomed their alternative to Barack Obama. The miscalculation of the party was that the resentments of the Tea Party toward Obama along with its innate energy would translate into a sure win for team Romney and the Republicans. The logic of their entitlement to liberty movement good graces in the face of swamp based fratricide at the hands of Boehner and Ryan was baffling but understandable in view of the authoritative Obama.


Fellow travelers who had put the movement aside were then bewildered at the resultant lack of enthusiasm for the third Bush administration lesser evil. In my post-2012 analysis of Florida commissioned by my employer I came to the conclusion that had two things been seriously addressed they might have won in spite of their shabby regard for the tea party/9-12 movement.

- Romney's team ran an appalling ground game in view of the enthusiasm gap. By contrast in 2016, Trump had an under resourced ground game but an enthusiasm advantage that made up for it multifold.

- Voter turnout in 2012 among newly arrived Venezuelans and Haitians in Broward, Miami-Dade were very well organized and the early voting numbers reflected that. there was no viable offset to this effort by the RNC and team Romney.


The stand out piece was that there was high game day turnout from Miami-Dade up the Atlantic coast to Saint Lucie county. Saint Lucie County itself had nearly 120% voter participation for the election as a whole. Likewise Pinellas county on the west end of the vaunted I-4 corridor went purple to blue.


Does this sound familiar?


Turn back to what General McInerny said about the use of Hammer in 2012. It was in Florida, a 'must win" for both sides. I was there, I am very willing to buy it after my pathology. As for Powell, she had stated that the software rip off was used against Bernie in 2016 and 2020. Does it also account for the massive flip in the House of Representatives in 2018? Here again he possibilities go on and on. From the instrument's inception circa 2003-2004 a reverse engineering of it and the subsequent elections must be done.