11/28 Saturday Outlook
Some good news out of the Keystone State
This situation is going to see substantial ebb and flow as this or that legal decision is reached, and the lock tumblers of legal action click into place. If you believe the media narrative, they are always winning, and Trump’s defeat is imminent. Yet if you know how to read the constitution and the courts, this is not the case, and this is one of those mornings where we have paper to show for it (I sent links).
If you will recall from the outset, we postulated that PA was a no fail for Biden/Harris. Due to the magnitude of the cheat there, that has borne itself out. The defeat in the middle district of PA federal court, followed by an unfavorable opinion on appeal from the third circuit is an empty victory for the other side. As with last evening’s note, the objective was always to get to the Supreme Court where we now have a functional majority.
Injunctive relief in all states and Pennsylvania comes in many forms from different directions. You can see this with Powell, Wood, and the Amistad Project. A group of down ballot candidates took it upon themselves to request relief on the certification of the ballot having been impacted by the fraud that the President’s team is arguing. The emergency preliminary injunction adds a layer of protection to the legal efforts through December 8th, the so-called “Safe Harbor” date. This is the date at which constitutionally, the state begins the process of seating electors for the Electoral College. This buys everyone ten days of breathing space with respect to gamesmanship by the state of PA.
One note of caution: the campaign’s federal case is drawing fire for being a rush job, hence the need to amend the case in the lower court. This may have been by design to expedite the case to the SCOTUS with the intent of lower courts rejecting it and giving the judges involved plausible cover for their decisions. Funny things can happen, and you ought to mark the spot.
Meanwhile in the wake of the hearing at the Wyndham, Gettysburg on Wednesday, State Senator Doug Mastriano submitted a resolution instructing the Secretary of State of PA to vacate the certification of the 20202 election. It is viewed as a prelude to the State Legislature asserting its constitutional prerogative (Art.2, sec. 1, cls. 2) to select the electors in a manner consistent with the will of the governed. Implicitly (once again) that the results of the vote are so deeply flawed as to be irreparable. The resolution has been submitted in Harrisburg.
The Subtleties of the Press War
In the headline tussling, the White House has debuted another formulation that had to get to a certain point in the legal process to make use of. Which is, that by the deliberate ignorance of the unfolding legal effort, team Biden/Harris was absent from where the real debate is. The new direction by Trump 2020 with the evidence piling up, has gone from ‘the election is ripped off and we’ll prove it’, to ‘prove that you actually won it’.
As before, the press and media are where team Biden/Harris sought to win the debate because their popular support is illusory. To all appearances this remains their plenipotentiary strategy.
By going with a legal strategy first we are now seeing the dividends. We could not concede any ground in the popular debate, the lawyers and statisticians needed time to develop evidence that would be incontrovertible. Monday of this past week seemed like the lowest point because the lawyers were still assembling affidavits and the courtroom appearances were nascent. But the campaign spin masters stuck with the plan and fought a necessarily defensive game while the lawyers worked diligently. The undeniable breakthrough of the legal lead defining the media strategy came with the Gettysburg hearing. It had the luxurious side benefit of reaching past the front line of the big-media phalanx into the local media markets via local news outlets. To this end, the popular effect is a matter of speculation.
The Media Gets Further Rooked
With Sydney Powell’s two civil complaints, the press seized upon them for “spelling errors”. Hook line and sinker the press took the bait as they always have with Trump’s tweets that they are misspelled. This is media jiu jitsu. They cannot get over their own haughtiness to realize that they drew attention to something they heretofore sought to supplant. Who cares if it is misspelled? A wider audience now knows about it. In the case of Powell and POTUS, this is by design. Powell and her team can always amend court documents.
Trump and the Party
The next 24 hours are going to be a re-examination of the respective sides strategies vis-à-vis the press. It is a weekend after a holiday, with the courts executing little business. Expect the grassroots of the Trump effort to see the solidification of plans for the next ten days. A rally was supposed to come off in Georgia and owing to COVID concerns has been postponed. This opens a curious question with respect to the standing of the populist conservative movement (aka the MAGA movement), which is can professional republicans find their way to supporting it fully through this political epic?
This is not a constitutional disruption. Our forefathers foresaw impasses such as this. The debates about the framing of debates as captured in the book “Miracle at Philadelphia” show that they were obsessed about making up the for the shortcomings our republic in rebuttal to the authoritarian stability of a monarchy. Where a Monarchy general performs as the sovereign commands with only a few crises when he/she dies with respect to succession, vs. American with a quad-annual revolution. The court cases and the press arguments are the mere instruments of advancing constitutional remedies. In sum, episodes like this were foreseen.
The uneven nature of support across the party is subtly becoming the stress test of it. No where is this more obvious than in Georgia, where indications are mounting that the governor and the Secretary of State are implicated in electoral corruption that works to the advantage of the other party. Yet they remain vested in the success of their home state republicans retaining office.
The campaign had planned to fly down today for a rally yet could not find a venue to host a rally due to state COVID restrictions. The event was intended as a measure to strengthen the grassroots while helping the down ticket that stands to benefit by these marathon recount and legal remedies. Reports are that the campaign will go down just prior (Dec. 5th) to the State’s “safe harbor” date for the electoral college (Dec, 8th). Such an accommodation has less impact for the business at hand and utilizes the deplorables for the state’s runoff election.
This fence riding is indicative of professional Republicanism in the face of popular conservatism (MAGA). Like the liberty movement (Tea Party, 9-12, etc.) in one of my previous notes, they want the energy and the effort without the commitment to the cause. Not having been to Morton’s terrace for a smoke and a bite in some time, I have to satisfy myself with the anecdotes of others who recount gossip that many of these same party animals inside the beltway have surrendered to the notion of a post-Trump moment. Some perhaps eagerly.
The collated rumor goes on to explain that these people have mortgages and private school tuition to pay. By having Trump as President, they are cut out of the places where they do the deals that get them new clients and monies in DC (Cocktail parties, charity/association dinners, speaking engagements). The immediate takeaway is that there is more swamp draining to be done. But it speaks to what motivates people who go into this line of work, and more to that point the outlook of the people who currently have their fingers on the mechanisms of the apparatus. It is a classic case of having it both ways.
The idea of a “Great America Party” is gaining traction. Georgia and the currently muted internecine strife will be telling as to the fortunes of the GOP through this. All of this is happening while #walkaway is looking for a new home. The Grand Old Party and those on Morton's terrace ought to take note.
“Blessed is the man who endures temptation; for when he has been approved, he will receive the crown of life which the Lord has promised to those who love Him.” - James 1:12